IGCC 2022

Key messages

This first update finds that, since the last major assessment of the climate system (IPCC AR6 WGI) was published in 2021, human-induced global warming has continued to rise and is now increasing at an unprecedented rate (over 0.2°C per decade).
Human-induced warming has increased from 1.07°C to 1.14°C (decadal averages for 2010-2019 and 2013-2022 respectively).
The high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 54 ± 5.3 GtCO₂e over the last decade, as well as a fall in aerosol cooling.
The remaining global carbon budget for a 50% chance of staying within 1.5°C has meanwhile fallen from 500 GtCO₂ to 250 GtCO₂.
But there is also evidence of a slowdown in the rate at which GHG emissions have been increasing, potentially signalling a change in direction for the human influence on climate. Otherwise, high rates of warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions also remain high.

The full paper is: Forster, P.M. et al.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and the human influence, ESSD – Atmosphere/Energy and Emissions, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-166, 2023.

Dashboard and charts

Interactive, shareable, and embeddable, dashboard, charts and insights reflecting the IGCC key messages.
https://climatechangetracker.org/igcc

Data sets

Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, Piers Forster, Nathan Gillett, Mathias Hauser, William Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Matthew Palmer, Aurélien Ribes, Dominik Schumacher, Sonia Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, and Karina von Schuckmann
https://zenodo.org/record/7969114

Model code and software

Remaining carbon budget calculation

Robin Lamboll and Joeri Rogelj
https://github.com/Rlamboll/AR6CarbonBudgetCalc