Key messages 2023

Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.26 °C per decade – the highest rate since records began, according to new research by over 50 leading international scientists.
The second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report reveals that human-induced warming has risen to 1.19 °C over the past decade (2014-2023) – an increase from the 1.14 °C seen in 2013-2022 (set out in last year's report).
Looking at 2023 in isolation, warming caused by human activity reached 1.3 °C. This is lower than the total amount of warming we experienced in 2023 (1.43 °C), indicating that natural climate variability, in particular El Niño, also played a role in 2023's record temperatures.
The analysis also shows that the remaining carbon budget - how much carbon dioxide can be emitted before committing us to 1.5 °C of global warming - is only around 200 gigatonnes (billion tonnes), around five years' worth of current emissions.
In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C was in the 300 to 900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide range, with a central estimate of 500. Since then, CO2 emissions and global warming have continued. At the start of 2024, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C stood at 100 to 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 200.

The full paper is: Forster, P.M. et al.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024.

Dashboard and charts

Interactive, shareable, and embeddable, dashboard, charts and insights reflecting the IGCC key messages.
https://climatechangetracker.org/igcc

Data sets

Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, Piers Forster, Nathan Gillett, Mathias Hauser, William Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Matthew Palmer, Aurélien Ribes, Dominik Schumacher, Sonia Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, and Karina von Schuckmann
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387

Model code and software

Remaining carbon budget calculation

Robin Lamboll and Joeri Rogelj
https://github.com/Rlamboll/AR6CarbonBudgetCalc