Key Messages 2024

It is likely that the world has now seen the global average temperature exceed 1.5°C above its pre-industrial level (1.39-1.65°C) for one year, although human-caused warming remains below this (best estimate up to 2024: 1.36°C).
For the most recent decade (2015-2024), the temperature was 1.24°C higher than in pre-industrial times of which 1.22°C was caused by human activity.
Human-caused warming has increased at a rate of around 0.27°C/decade (2015-2024) mainly due to the continued build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Global greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high. Human activities have resulted in the equivalent of around 53 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2) being released into the atmosphere on average each year over the last decade, primarily due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and industry.
The remaining carbon budget from the start of 2025 is 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (30-320 gt CO2). This central estimate would be exhausted in a little more than three years at current emissions levels.
Between 2019-2024, global mean sea level has increased by around 26 mm, more than doubling the long-term rate of 1.8 mm per year seen since the turn of the twentieth century. Global mean sea level has also risen by around 228 mm since the start of the twentieth century.
Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are the primary reason why there is an imbalance in the Earth's climate system.
The rate of global heating has about doubled from the levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s to around 1W/m2 (0.99 W/m2) measured over 2012 to 2024. The ocean is storing an estimated 91% of the excess heat.
Surplus heat accumulating in the Earth's system at an accelerating rate is driving changes in every component of the climate system, including sea level rise, ocean warming, ice loss, continental warming and permafrost thawing.

The full paper is: Forster, P.M. et al.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024.

Dashboard and charts

Interactive, shareable, and embeddable, dashboard, charts and insights reflecting the IGCC key messages.
https://climatechangetracker.org/igcc

Data sets

Smith Chris, Walsh Tristram, Gillett Nathan, Hauser Mattias, Krumml Paul, Lamb William, Lamboll Robin, Mühle Jens, Palmer Matthew, Ribes Aurélien, Schumacher Dominik, Seneviratne Sonia, Slangen Aimée, Trewin Blair, von Schuckmann Karina, Forster Piers.
https://zenodo.org/records/15639576

Model code and software

Remaining carbon budget calculation

Robin Lamboll and Joeri Rogelj
https://github.com/Rlamboll/AR6CarbonBudgetCalc